Is there a draft in here?

"Joe Gibbs, Redskins president, is hurting Joe Gibbs, Redskins coach." That's how Redskins critic John Keim of The Washington Examiner assessed the team's roster moves under the coach-in-chief's regime. Keim examines Gibbs' trading hits and misses. More useful is Keim's look at how other teams used those draft picks.

The Redskins' theory is to trade the uncertainty of draft picks for the known quantity of veteran players. That approach worked for George Allen when he imported the Over-The-Hill gang in the seventies. Allen's "known quantities" were people he already worked with at the Rams for the most part. His quarterback move was to bring in a starter-ready Billy Kilmer to back up Jurgensen.

Gibbs, out of the game for a decade, had scouting reports and Vinnie Cerrato to work with. The hits have been spectacular: Moss for Coles and Portis for Bailey. Both Coles and Bailey were disgruntled players who wanted out. Keim questions whether any of those trades needed to be accompanied by draft picks. Portis for Bailey may have stood on its own without the second round pick that went to Denver.

In the nineties, GM Charley Casserly pulled of a draft coup when he scarfed up Heath Shuler, Michael Westbrook and Desmond Howard. With their college reps, the buzz was that Norv Turner would have a passing attack to rival the then dominant Cowboys. The drama and trauma that followed may explain the Redskins' disdain of draft picks today.

The Redskins are the oldest team in the NFL, Keim points out, but may not have enough draftees to fill in for the future. Trading my be their only viable option.

The moves may yet be successful, but the slow start when everyone expected dominance confuses players, perplexes coaches and leaves fans beside themselves.

Catch Keim's article, "Suspect architect," here.

Washington Redskins
Joe Gibbs

Gibbs hangs it up

Coach-in-chief Joe Gibbs shocked team owner Daniel Snyder and Redskins fans everywhere by abruptly announcing his resignation. "I was struck by Tiki Barber's statement that 'football would not define me,'" said the coach. "It inspired me to take a step I had been contemplating since the Titans game. Like all the other core Redskins, it's time for me to play elsewhere."

Snyder moved quickly to replace the legendary Hall of Fame coach by offering the position to former Titans head coach Jeff Fisher. In spite of Fisher's 1-15 record in his last season in Tennessee, Snyder had to win a bidding war against Jerry Jones for Fisher's services. The announcement immediately triggered payment of a $2 million bonus to Gregg Williams, who was not named as Gibbs' successor.
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This story is fiction, of course, but could be a story line if a rumor reported on ProFootballTalk.com comes to pass. On October 25, 2006, PFT reported that Snyder had his eye on Fisher as a potential successor to Gibbs. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones reportedly has the same interest. There is open speculation that Bill Parcells may step down as the Cowboys coach at the end of the season.

ProFootballTalk describes itself as a reporter of rumors. The Redskins promptly labeled the story "nonsense."

Gibbs leaving at the end of the season would send to organization into a tailspin. As team president, with the stated goal of restoring the organization to a championship caliber, the coach-in-chief has set up a structure with two potential HC candidates already on board. A transition plan where Gibbs steps away from active coaching while remaining in active management is the best of all scenarios.

Snyder would be true to form if he reached outside the organization for a splashy, big-name signing hoping for immediate impact while ignoring the disruptive chain of events such a move would trigger. But, this is all hypothetical.

Isn't it?

Washington Redskins
Joe Gibbs

Hang in there Redskins

The general gloom in the atmosphere is understandable. It must be purged; flushed, sent packing. Yes, it's a realistic view of where the Redskins stand, but hardly means the season is lost.

Here's the definition of "it's over:" when the team is farther back of the division leader than there are games left, it's over. The Skins are three back with nine games to go. The Eagles and Giants have yet to play the Titans. Anything can happen.

Sports psychologists say winners must only see themselves achieving their goal, whatever the obstacle. You aren't what you were. You are what you want to be. Blow that last game? That wasn't the real you. Next time you will get it right because you are the best performer on the field. That's what the Redskins have to tell themselves now.

In sports, maybe in life, as soon as you focus on what you are not, that's what you become.

Ninety percent of this game is half-mental. ~Yogi Berra

Yeah, it's baseball, but it fits.

As for disappointments at the bye, head over to the Redskins page at RealFootball 365. For another take, see John Keim's "What's the problem?" at the Washington Examiner.

Washington Redskins

Redskins could learn from business

Amy Joyce over at the Post wrote a column on the on how difficult it is for new executives to be successful in a new company. The Redskins, she says, might be facing the same issues with Al Saunders. Business holds lessons on the pitfalls and solutions.

Joyce writes ". . . if the new superstar does not take the company's history or culture into account before he turns the organization's identity upside-down, it could be disastrous . . . ."

Execs get a honeymoon period, but success for the new guy depends both on support by the top leaders and on buy-in from the troops. Most important for the executive is to motivate and encourage the positive, not the negative.

You can see the full article here.

Washington Redskins

Football Algebra: 1Cool dude>Lloyd+ARE

A post by Atlanta Skins Fan on EXTREMESKINS argues that the Redskins downgraded the passing game by bringing on Brandon Lloyd and Twaan Randle El and targeting them for receptions in preference to Chris Cooley, the Redskins' number two receiver last year.

Atlanta Skins Fans backs up his argument with an assessment of the reliability of each receiver. He compared the number of receptions to passes thrown to each player. By this analysis, Chris Cooley was more reliable by far than either ARE or Lloyd. Expressed algebraically, you would say that one Cooley is greater than Lloyd and Randle El combined, or C>(BL+ARE).

Atlanta Skins suggests that the passing game would be better if the Redskins lined up its most reliable receivers in a two wide receiver set - Moss and Randle El - with Cooley at tight end, and targeting Moss, Cooley and Randle El in that priority.

It's a unique look and the numbers are intriguing. I believe that, of the three parts of the passing game: blocking, throwing and catching, blocking is 51% of the result. Atlanta Skins' post looks at the receiving. You can see the full post on ExtremeSkins here.

There are two implications of this analysis. The first, pointed out by Atlanta Skins, is that Mark Brunell's problem may not be that he can't find receivers, but that his alternatives to Moss are not reliable targets. Thus, they get high percentage, short passes. The second is that Deputy Head Coach Saunders just needs time, maybe a season, to really adapt to his personnel.

Washington Redskins